Shanghai population growth rate keeps dropping below zero
Population growth rate of this, china’s biggest city, which dropped below zero in 1993 for the first time, is expected to drop further in 1994 according to Sun Zuyao, chief of the Shanghai municipal statistics bureau. The city had a registered population of 12.98 million at the close of 1994, he said. Last year saw a birthrate of 5.8 per thousand, a death rate of seven per thousand and a natural growth rate of minus 1.2 per thousand. The major reasons for this are the implementation of the family planning policy, the people’s higher level of education and the rapidly improving living standards.
Experts agree, the minus population growth will bring about some negative effects in the long run, as the aged population increases and a lack of workers develops. The municipal government is working to tackle these problems, they said (Shanghai, Jan. 25, Xinhua).
More children for Japan?
Demographers say Japanese women must average 2.1 births to avoid population decline. “This is undoubtedly a grave situation,” said Keisuke Iwasaki, a senior economist at the Sanwa Research Institute. “Early action must be taken to stop the declining trend of birthrates and prevent a sharp drop in population,” he continued.
Japan’s Economic Planning Agency reported late marriages and the increasing number of single people were the primary causes of the relentless drop in the nation’s birthrate.
Changes in family values, the costly and competitive education system and poor housing and working conditions are also keeping the birthrate low. The rate could keep dropping for decades, although it could rise again to 1.8 in the year 2025.
Japan’s total population would rise to a peak of 130 million in 2011 from the current 124 senior researcher at the Japan Federation of Employers’ Association (Nikkeiren).
Public concern is increasing about how the social welfare system will cope with the rapidly aging society. “The national pension fund scheme financed by taxpayers’ money could collapse if Japan failed to keep its economic growth at high levels,” said Sanwa Research’s Iwasaki said. “It is not that easy to maintain high economic growth without having a sufficient number of workers” (6 February 1995, Reuters).
Misery loves company
A three-member team from Shanghai family planning (FP) organizations learned insights into ways to diversify their activities during a study tour to Japan from September 25 — October 3. The visit, organized by the Japan Family Planning Association (JFPA) in cooperation with the Japanese Organization for Cooperation in Family Planning, was geared to promoting exchange of information and future collaboration in FP between the two countries.
The visit was particularly rewarding for Chinese officials who are looking to broaden family reduction activities to meet the changing needs of the people of Shanghai. The city is unique in China for being the first to report negative population growth in 1993.
Alter 40 years of population activities, Shanghai’s average annual birthrate fell from the 1950s level of 40.1 per 1,000 to reach 6.5 per 1,000 in 1993. Natural growth rate decreased from 32.1 per 1,000 to minus 0.8 per 1,000 over the same period.
With the concept of FP already well accepted among the Shanghai people, the FP organizations are seeking to focus more on activities that improve the quality of life of the people rather than slow population growth. Shanghai is the first city to face such a historical challenge in China.
Spreading the misery to the rest of Asia
“Significant progress” was made toward assembling a village level task force dining three-day training workshops held in the two areas in the Province of Gatangas in the Philippines. The UNFPA supported Sustainable Community-based Family Planning/Maternal and Child Health Project with a special focus on Women is being promoted. The training in community organizing was attended by 33 participants from the 15 barangays (villages) of Malvar Municipality from 1–3 August. Thirty-two participants from 11 barangays in Balayan Municipality from 4–6. Participants included village health volunteers and women leaders of the communities.
The project is aimed at building on the existing system of health volunteers in the barangays to assist midwives in their role as key health personnel for the promotion of family planning/maternal and child health (FP/MCH) in the community. An important aspect of the project is increasing awareness at the community level to enable health personnel to work in collaboration with health volunteers and women’s groups to provide more comprehensive and integrated health activities (“Philippine Women in Action,” JOICFP NEWS, November 1994).
Too few school children in Kerala
A successful family planning programme is sending Kerala’s state-run primary schools out of business, as birthrates dropped to 17.5 per 1000. This compares to the national average of 29 per 1000.
As many as 109 primary schools have been closed down in the last eight years. The director of public instruction (DPI) is reported to have a list of another 150 primary schools which are proving unviable and are to be dispensed with in ‘95. Last year, the proposed closure of 63 schools was deferred following pressure from political parties and teachers. These schools too are likely to close down this year.
Enrollment of students at the lower primary level has been steadily declining over the years. The report of the expert committee showed that enrollment in primary schools had plummeted to 23.22 lakhs in 1993 from 29.08 lakhs in 1973. On an average, the annual fall in enrollment works out to 26,750 students (Times of India News Service, 13 Jan. 1995).
