As the Supreme Court deliberates on whether “birthright citizenship” is constitutional (it’s not), left-wing media outlets are suddenly very, very concerned about falling American birth rates.
They are claiming that if we don’t allow illegal aliens to enter the U.S., and then magically create citizens by air-dropping babies on American soil, there will simply be too few people in the U.S. in the years to come.
They are hoping that you ignore the fact that, just yesterday, they were worried about too many people in the U.S. You know, overpopulation, resource depletion, and all that.
Now it’s the more, the merrier.
Articles praising immigration—legal or illegal, it doesn’t matter—are gushing forth from the liberal press. We need the babies they will bring, these articles claim, because we are not making enough ourselves. It is the only way to stave off population decline, they tell us, not only here in the U.S. but in other first-world countries as well.
In January, Reuters blasted President Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration for slowing population growth in the U.S. The implication, though they don’t put it quite so bluntly, is that unfettered immigration is the solution to boosting the birth rate and increasing the U.S. population.
Newsweek then chimed in to cheerily point out that “Immigration Accounts for Entire US Population Growth for First Time.” We need open borders to keep the country growing, was the subtext of the piece. It even quoted President Trump on the need to address the declining U.S. birth rate, but only for the purpose of suggesting that immigration—whether legal or not—is the answer to the decline, rather than, say, encouraging Americans to marry and be fruitful.
The same narrative–that immigration is the answer to the looming demographic winter–is being pushed in Europe as well and even more strongly.
Just look at Italy.
Two weeks ago, Reuters ran a celebratory piece entitled “Italy’s population stops shrinking after 12 years, thanks to migration.” The number of babies born to native Italians was continuing to fall, but not to worry, the article reads, help is on the way. As they did in the waning days of the Roman Empire, invading barbarian tribes will come to the rescue.
The authors of another op-ed attacked immigration laws directly, alleging that both in Italy and the United States a major cause of low fertility is that our laws keep too many fertile foreigners out. They went on to claim that “the expansion of citizenship rights to immigrants and their children provides a ready-made solution” to falling birth rates.
Leave aside, for the moment, the question of what level of legal immigration America should have. The fact remains that, however many legal immigrants we allow in—individuals willing to integrate, assimilate, and work hard for a better life—legal immigration will not, because it cannot, magically solve the problem of depopulation.
Here’s why immigration won’t solve the critically low fertility rate.
First, fertility is declining globally, not just in the First World. Only a few countries in Africa and the Middle East still have fertility rates above replacement, and even these are trending downwards. The pool of fertile immigrants is shrinking worldwide.
And what about the children and grandchildren that those immigrants are supposed to have to save our demographic future?
The reality is that the higher fertility rates of some immigrant groups disappear in a generation or two as immigrant fertility converges to local levels. This means that first-generation immigrants may have slightly higher fertility than native-born Americans, but by the second generation, their fertility has fallen to the national norm. The fact is, immigration can’t stop population aging long-term.
The bottom line is that immigration is a band-aid solution at best. It may mask the hemorrhaging birth rate for a time, but it won’t stop the bleeding.
Here is what one demographic study says:
“A rational consequence of this trend is that immigration cannot constitute a long-term solution for the declining TFR observed in affluent societies. The problem can only be addressed once we have a deeper understanding of the mechanisms suppressing fertility rates and develop strategies that address the root cause of this phenomenon, not just its consequences.” [emphasis added]
Countries that rely heavily on immigration may buy themselves a few extra decades, but they will still ultimately decline if the root causes aren’t addressed. And, in the meantime, they will import all the problems associated with unfettered immigration, up to and including the loss of their national identity.
We must rebuild a culture that supports marriage and family, beginning at the local level by creating communities that are open to and supportive of life. Just as importantly, we must push back against the messaging—from government institutions to media portrayals—that diminishes the importance of spouses, children, and family life.
That’s why PRI is working hard on a Presidential Executive Order to secure America’s demographic future.
