Popcorn: Just One Huge Ice Cube

Recently a large iceberg, estimated to be about the size of the state of Rhode Island, broke loose from the floating Larsen Ice Shelf of Antarctica and slowly started drifting northward.1

Scientists immediately attributed the breakup to “rising regional temperatures” in Antarctica amid speculation as to whether it had been caused by global “greenhouse warming.”2 David Vaughan, a British Antarctic Survey glaciologist at Cambridge, stated that the Antarctic ice shelf “deterioration is pretty significant…[we’ve] only ever seen one other ice shelf disintegrate like this.”

The widely read Mark Trail comic strip devoted several panels to the “48 miles by 22 miles” iceberg, which was being “closely watched by scientists as it could affect the climate of the world.” Indeed, the iceberg was melting “faster than expected. And if this condition continues, this tremendous piece of ice could cause serious flooding all over the world.”3

Although no one has so far blamed the situation on “over-population” — Paul Ehrlich and Lester Brown have yet to be heard from — it’s quite obvious where the ultimate blame will fall: too darn many people overloading the atmosphere with tons of “greenhouse gases.” What has really been going on?

First, the breaking away of large icebergs from the Antarctic ice shelves, even bergs as large as Rhode Island, is not unique but has happened a number of times in the past. Some of the larger icebergs reported by The New York Times include: a) a “100-mile [long] iceberg” which was “as large as Long Island [NY]”; b) a berg about “25 miles wide and 93 miles long; c) one “measuring 25 by 45 miles, almost the size of Rhode Island”; d) an “8T-mile-long iceberg…[whose] area…was estimated at 2,700 square miles”; e) a “95 mile long and 22 mile wide” berg; and, the “largest iceberg on record,” f) one “more than twice the size of [the state of] Connecticut…60 miles wide and 208 miles long”!4

Despite the hype and fears of the eco-populationists, the breakaway of large Antarctic icebergs appears to be nothing more than one phase of the periodic cycle of ice buildup and breakdown in that region. Indeed, several reports indicate that the “Antarctic ice may be growing…[with] input exceed[ing] output [the icebergs] by 5 to 15 percent.”5

Second, there is absolutely nothing to fear regarding flooding from a floating iceberg. Floating ice — regardless of size — already displaces as much water as it ever will. This is why the melting ice cubes in a glass of liquid do not cause the fluid level to overflow its container. This basic scientific fact is true not only for icebergs but also for the great Antarctic floating ice shelves (Ross, Larsen, Ronne, Cook, Getz, Lady Newnes, Bellingshausen, Shackleton, Voyeykov, etc.) The melting of the interior Antarctic ice sheets, which rest upon land, would be a different matter. But they seem to be growing, and global warming will only make them grow faster.

Population Growth: Pick a Number

Once again the question of how fast the population of the Philippines might be growing was in the news. This subject was previously treated in two 1993 “Popcorn” columns when annual Philippine population growth rates of 2.35 percent, increasing to 2.48 percent, increasing yet again to 2.7 percent, were all claimed in one month’s time.6

This time around 3 different news agencies reported from Manila, on the same day (12 July), the following “facts” regarding the population growth rate of the Philippines: Reuters — “the annual population growth rate [is] 2.48 percent”; UPI — “the country’s annual population growth rate [is] 2.3 percent; Xinhua — “the population of [the] Philippines …is still growing at the rate of 2.2 percent every year.”

The Xinhua news agency dispatch said that the “Philippine population reach[ed] 67 million” in mid-1995. But one year before, the U.S. Bureau of the Census had placed the mid-1994 population of the Philippines at 69.8 million.7

Global Warming Is the Usual Suspect

In 1988 the midsection of the United States suffered through a great drought and the Mississippi River was at a very low level. Self-styled ecologists and over-populationists blamed the situation on global warming.

In 1993, and to a lesser extent in 1995, the United States mid-West endured months of torrential rains which caused unprecedented flooding of the Mississippi River. Again, the eco-pop crowd placed the blame on global warming.

A Word of Explanation

For readers who have asked why this column is titled “POPCORN”: POP is for population and CORN is American slang for hokum.