Popcorn

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

1.57, 1.53, 1.46 … Going, Going …

In 1990 Japanese journalists coined the term “1.57 shock” when they learned that the nation’s birth rate — actually, the total fertility rate (TFR) — had fallen to a new low of just 1.57 births per woman per completed reproductive lifetime. In 1992, it became the “1.53 shock.” And now, with the release of the 1993 vital statistics, the Japanese are pondering the implications of the “1.46 shock” as fertility rates continue their long downward slide.1

One obvious problem: low fertility produces a rapidly aging population. The Japanese government now projects that “26 percent of Japan’s population will be over age 65 by the year 2025.”2 This “top-heavy” age structure will place severe financial burdens on the lesser numbers of young workers available to pay for the medical and pension services required by the greatly expanded ranks of the elderly.

A previous POPCORN article about Japan’s long experience with well-below replacement level fertility, cited Japanese government statistics predicting a population decline starting in the year 2006.3 The latest fertility figures indicate the predicted scenario is right on target. Indeed, recent U.N. population projections for Japan — both the medium and low variants — now call for a decline in Japan’s population after the year 2005.4 Even more startling is the low variant’s projection of Japan’s 2050 population: less than 94 million as compared to Japan’s current population of some 125 million.

Brown’s Latest “Per Capita” Grain Ploy

Lester Brown, founder and president of the Washington, D.C.-based Worldwatch Institute, has recently been peddling a new version of his decade-old claim that per capita world grain production topped out in 1984 and has since declined sharply. According to Brown, grain production peaked in 1984 at 346 kilograms per person and by the end of 1993 it had fallen “by more than one tenth to 303 kilograms.”5

Brown attributed the decline to all the usual culprits: “less 1and… unsustainable use of land and water…the cumulative effects of soil erosion…environmental degradation .… “6 It all sounds so ominous, but what really happened?

First of all, Brown carefully chose the year 1993 for his invidious comparison. In 1992, a year of record corn and rice harvests and the second greatest wheat harvest ever, Brown had little to say. But in 1993, world grain production fell by more than 81 million metric tons (MMT) from the previous year’s record harvests.7 This shortfall was entirely due to the unprecedented floods that ravaged much of the mid-western United States and caused a decline in U.S. grain production of more than 92 million metric tons . Elsewhere in the world, the grain harvests were more than 11 MMT greater than in 1992.

The U.S. 1993 harvest decline led to a world grain production decrease of some 15 kilograms (kg) per capita, about 35 percent of the total 1984-1993 decline cited by Lester Brown. In 1994, however, U.S. production is back on track with new all-time record harvests of corn and rice — soybeans too, but that’s not a grain. Brown will no longer be able to point to a low-ball number of “303 kg” per capita world grain production; he’ll have to make do with 320 kg per capita.

But what of the remaining 25-odd kilogram per capita decline in world grain output?

The explanation is quite simple and not at all fearsome, as World Bank senior economist Donald O. Mitchell’s research has well documented: the food consumption patterns of much of the world’s populace has changed dramatically in recent years.8 In Asia, especially, “direct per capita consumption of traditional foods [i.e., rice] is declining in most countries as people are adding variety to their diet .…” In Japan, for instance, between 1961 and 1939, the “per capita consumption of rice…has declined from about 107 kg to less than 65 kg, while meat consumption has increased from about 5 kg to nearly 40 kg.”9

In China, “per capita rice consumption has not increased in nearly a decade while meat consumption has risen rapidly.” Consumption of fruits and vegetables has also increased dramatically throughout Asia; China’s per capita consumption of such foods has nearly doubled in the past 30 years.10

With the peoples of Asia — more than half the world’s population — sharply curtailing their consumption of rice, no wonder world per capita grain production has declined. If the people are not eating it, farmers don’t grow it! Stagnant rice production, coupled with a continued population increase, automatically leads to a per capita grain production decline. Despite Brown’s attempt to propagandize the situation, there’s nothing mysterious or worrisome about this development. Indeed, Asian peoples are eating better and healthier diets than ever before even though the sharp cutback in their intake of starchy rice has led to a per capita decline in world grain production.