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The World’s Vanishing Children


 

THE WORLD’S VANISHING CHILDREN

Throughout the world birth rates and total fertility rates are plunging faster and further than ever recorded in human history. Despite all the apocalyptic doomsday predictions of overpopulation propagandists, the fact is that population growth rates in many countries are already below replacement level and the world’s growth rate is rapidly approaching that figure. If current trends continue, the world’s population will peak by the middle of the century and then begin demographic freefall.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in each of the following 100 nations the current total fertility rates are now at or below the population replacement level-generally held to be 2.1 births per woman per completed reproductive lifetime.

Total Fertility Rates (TFR) at

or Below Replacement Level

Country

Population Total Fertility Rate
Albania  3581655 2.1
Andorra 71201 1.3
Anguilla 13477 1.7
Argentina  39921833 2.2
Armenia  2976372 1.6
Aruba 71891 1.8
Australia  20264082 1.8
Austria  8192880 1.4
Bahamas 303770 2.2
Barbados 279912 1.6
Belarus  10293011 1.4
Belgium  10379067 1.6
Bermuda 65773 1.9
Bosnia & Herzegovina  4498976 1.7
Brazil  188078227 1.9
British Virgin Islands 23098 1.7
Bulgaria  7385367 1.1
Burma  47382633 2.0
Canada  33098932 1.6
Cayman Islands 45436 1.9
Chile  16134219 2.0
China  1313973713 1.7
Croatia  4494749 1.9
Cuba  11382820 1.6
Cyprus  784301 1.8
Czech Republic  10235455 1.2
Denmark  5450661 1.7
Dominica 68910 2.0
Estonia  1324333 1.3
Faroe Islands 47246 2.2
Finland  5231372 1.7
France  60876136 1.8
French Polynesia  274578 2.0
Georgia  4661473 1.6
Germany  82422299 1.4
Gibraltar 27928 1.6
Greece  10688058 1.4
Guadeloupe  452776 1.9
Guernsey 65409 1.4
Guyana 767245 2.1
Hong Kong S.A.R.  6940432 1.3
Hungary  9981334 1.3
Iceland 299388 1.9
Iran 68688433 1.9
Ireland  4062235 1.9
Isle of Man 75441 1.6
Italy  58133509 1.3
Jamaica  2758124 2.0
Japan  127463611 1.4
Jersey 91084 1.6
Latvia  2274735 1.3
Lebanon  3874050 1.9
Liechtenstein 33987 1.5
Lithiuania  3585906 1.5
Luxembourg 474413 1.7
Macau S.A.R. 453125 1.3
Macedonia  2050554 1.7
Malta 400214 1.9
Martinique 436131 1.8
Mauritius  1240827 2.0
Moldova  4466706 1.8
Monaco 32543 1.8
Montserrat 9439 1.8
Netherlands  16491461 1.7
Netherlands Antilles 221736 2.0
New Zealand  4076140 1.8
North Korea  23113019 2.2
North Mariana Islands 82459 1.8
Norway  4610820 1.8
Poland  38536869 1.4
Portugal  10605870 1.5
Puerto Rico  3927188 2.0
Romania  22303552 1.4
Russia  142893540 1.4
San Marino 29251 1.3
Seychelles 81541 1.8
Singapore  4492150 1.3
Slovakia  5439448 1.3
Slovenia  2010347 1.3
Spain  40397842 1.3
South Africa  44187637 2.1
South Korea  48846823 1.6
Sri Lanka
St. Helena
St. Lucia
St. Pierre & Miquelon
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Thailand

Excerpted from Global Population Profile: 2002,

U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce,

March 2004. Mid-year 2002 populations,

in thousands, from Table A-4, *Population by

Region and Country: 1950 to 2050*; 2005 Total

Fertility Rates from Table A-9, *Total Fertility by

Region and Country: 1990 to 2050.*

Total Fertility Rate (TFR):

The average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given set of age-specific fertility rates.

Calculating the TFR involves determining the fertility rate for various cohorts of potential mothers (from age 15 to 19 through age 45 to 49); summing these; and multiplying by the size of the age interval (five).

The TFR is one of the most important fertility measures; it answers as nearly as possible the question: How many children are women currently having?

Replacement Level Fertility (RLF):

The level of fertility needed so that a child is born to replace each person in the parents’ generation. Over a period of time, the continuous occurrence of replacement level fertility will produce zero population growth in the population under consideration. The Magic Number 2.1 : In the industrialized nations, and in particular, in the United States, the RLF that will produce a condition of zero population growth is widely accepted as 2.1, i.e. 2.1 births per woman per reproductive life span. Most demographers agree that if a nation’s TFR=RLF= 2.1, population growth will ultimately cease and the country’s population will stabilize. In the less developed countries of the world, the impact of higher mortality rates on replacement fertility levels results in RLF figures greater than 2.3. In certain Asian lands like China, the strong cultural preference for boys, now readily implemented via sex-selection abortion, has led to such unprecedented imbalances in the malefemale sex ratios that current RLF numbers are probably higher than 2.4 or even 2.5.

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