World population growth slows sharply: United States Census numbers suggest deceleration

The United States Census Bureau has estimated that world population in 1996 will grow by 79.4 million people, about 20 million less than the number commonly cited by the most powerful population prognosticators. If the estimate holds true, 1996 will be pivotal in proving the rate of population growth around the world is falling.

When the 1990s began, those concerned with the alleged problems of “overpopulation” were in complete agreement that the earth was then experiencing the “most rapid increase in human population ever… [with] each year until well into the 21st Century [seeing] more than 90 million people…added to the world total.”1

Various annual reports on The State of World Population, published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), detailed the annual increments; 1992 — “Annual additions to world population in the next decade will average 97 million, the highest in history”; 1993 — “…the number of people added each year is still rising…in 1992 it was 93 million. It will peak between 1995 and 2000, at about 98 million annually.”; 1994 — “…annual increases are at 94 million a year, the highest increases in history.”2

The 1992 booklet Earth audit: The world environment 1972 to 1992, published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) as a “special contribution” to the UN Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in June of that year, claimed that “During the 1990s…97 million more [people]” would be added yearly to the world’s population total.3 Also in 1992, the population division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Development, in its World Population 1992 chart,4 published a bar graph depicting the “average annual increase”” in world population for each 5-year period between 1950–2025. Every one of the five-year periods from 1990 to 2015 was represented by a bar exceeding 90 million.

Some of the more vociferous overpopulation extremists couldn’t wait to push the alleged annual growth numbers beyond the 100 million mark. U.S. Vice President Al Gore, for instance, in a famous address at the National Press Club in 1994, delivered just prior to the UN’s population conference in Cairo, declared that “global population is now growing, by far, at the fastest rate ever. It is growing by almost 100 million people every year…the equivalent of another China every 10 years.”5 And then, in early 1994, a funny thing happened.

With little or no publicity whatever, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued its bi-yearly publication World Population Profile, which contained a very interesting statistic literally buried within the report: “In 1994, 87 million more persons” were added to the world’s population — to be precise the Census Bureau figure was actually 86.8 million.6

The Bureau so downplayed this statistic that the Profile failed to even include it under “Highlights.”7 Given the lack of promotion it is hardly surprising that, as far as can be determined, not a single media outlet reported it.8

Although the relatively small difference between 87 million and the 90 plus figures being bandied about by the population control crowd might appear little, this unexpected decline was an important portent of things to come.

Contrary to the preachments of the population control “experts” and the belief of the public, according to the U. S. Census Bureau, world population growth was not spiraling ever upward, but apparently had reached a peak and the rate of increase was now decreasing. In mathematics, this would be known as going through an “inflection point,” with the derivative (the acceleration) going negative or decelerating.

This new development was all the more significant in view of the fact that the Census Bureau previously had been issuing the same type of population growth estimates as the overpopulation propagandists. In World Population Profile: 1989, for instance, the Bureau reported that “about 93 million more [people] will be added” to the world’s population that year, while in Profile: 1991 the Bureau claimed that “95 million persons…are added each year.” Indeed, the Bureau predicted that in the period “2015 to 2020, about 100 million will be added annually.”9

Even more significant, however, is that the most influential overpopulation groups which periodically issue their population guesstimates all fell into line, and began using the new, lower population growth statistic from the Census Bureau.

One-by-one, with no publicity or fanfare — indeed, usually with no explanation at all — the major population organizations have fallen into line with the Census Bureau’s statistic. UNFPA’s latest The State of World Population: 1996, just issued in June 1996, now asserts that mankind’s numbers “are increasing by more than 86 million annually,” a sharp departure from that organization’s previous estimates.10

The UN’s quarterly Population and Vital Statistics Report, which in July 1994 reported a world population increase of 93 million in the year’s period from mid-1993to mid-1994, just 6 months later suddenly shifted to the lower figure of 86 million for that period. The first report of 1996 also gives an 86 million increase for the year mid1994 to mid-1995.11

The bar graph contained within the UN’s World Population: 1994 chart (See text, above, and endnote #4), depicting the “‘average annual increase” in world population for 5-year intervals, was suddenly changed from levels above 90 million to lengths representing numbers of less than 90 million.12 (The publication appeared in August 1994, several months after the release of the Census Bureau’s report.)

Even overpopulation extremist Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute, who in his Vital Signs series had been tossing off “record population growth” statistics in excess of 90 million annually, changed all the 90-plus million figures from his population growth tables, and replaced them with moderately lower numbers in the high 80-million range.13

And the Census Bureau estimates for world population growth in 1996 indicate that the trend is continuing.

The Bureau’s up-to-the-minute numbers indicate that in 1996 the total number of births in the world will be some 133 million — a figure 5 or 6 million below previous estimates — while the number of deaths in the world will rise to nearly 54 mi1lion.14 (The annual death total, incidentally. has risen by some 4 million in this decade, at reflection of the substantial ageing of the world’s inhabitants, a situation occurring everywhere, but most especially in the developed world.)

In little more than two years time, the annual population growth of the world, according to the U.S. Census Bureau figures, has fallen from well over 90 to below 80 million.