Developed population drops but many eat better despite “crowding”
The Depopulation of Japan
The Japanese Organization for International Cooperation in Family Planning (JOJCFP) wrote in a recent issue of JOICFP News that the most recent figures on Japan’s birthrate are a “cause for concern.” Unlike other countries such as Germany and Italy, whose fertility rates are even lower, Japan is not open to immigration. The fertility rate in Japan has dropped from 3.65 in 1950 to its current level, 1.39. If current trends continue, Japan’s population could be nearly halved by the year 2100. The “key issue,” says JOICFP, is “how to convince ordinary Japanese couples to have more babies.” But once you’ve convinced people that they don’t want to have children, it is difficult to change their minds. So far, government efforts to raise the birth rate have been unsuccessful. “Until there is a dramatic shift in corporate culture and societal attitudes to put the family first,” writes JOICFP. “Japan will continue along the same path.” (JOICFP News, September 1998)
Fewer Canadian babies too
Canada’s fertility rate has hit an all-time low, Statistics Canada has reported. In 1959 Canada’s TFR was 3.9. It has since plummeted to its current level of 1.6. As more and more Canadian women are leaving their childbearing years without giving birth, it becomes increasingly unlikely that this situation will change. In 1971,only 7% of women aged 35-44 were childless. This number has more than doubled to 15%. Many women postpone childbearing in order to have a career, and then find that after age 35 it is much more difficult to conceive. Estimates indicate that one out of six women who desire a child is unable to conceive. If current trends continue, as early as 2020 there will be more deaths than births in Canada. The current population growth rate is under 1%, of which newborns account for less than half. (“Canada Feels ‘Baby Bust”’ by Philip Lee-Shanok, Toronto Sun, 15 November 1998)
US not immune
Although the population of the United States is still continuing to grow, the rate of growth has slowed down dramatically, the U.S. Census Bureau reports. From 1990 to 1996, the annual population growth rate dropped from 1.02 to .88 percent, in part to the fact that the baby boomers are entering their less fertile years. The number of women in their prime childbearing years (15-29) dropped from 28.73 million in 1990 to 27.09 million in 1997. In addition, the number of births dropped and the number of deaths rose during this period. At this rate, by 2050, the population of the U.S. is expected to reach 394 million. Even so, the U.S. will be largely empty, as most people choose to settle in cities. Currently, 80 percent of the population live in 273 metropolitan areas. The number of elderly is expected to greatly increase. In one-third of the states, elderly are expected to “double their share of the population,” according to the Census Bureau. Already, certain areas of the country are starting to see the effects of reduced birth rates. Approximately 20 states, mostly in the Midwest and Northeast, expect to see a decline in the number of public school students within a decade. (“US population Expected to Hit 394M” Los Angeles Times, 19 November 1998; “Birth Rates Falling in Southwest Ohio” Associated Press, 15 November 1998)
Fewer hungry people
Despite what population doomsayers would have us believe, the proportion of hungry people in the world is actually decreasing, not increasing, according to the non-profit Christian organization, Bread for the World. The proportion of hungry people worldwide has dropped from one-third to one-fifth since 1970. During a time when the world added two billion people, the number of malnourished people declined from 918 million in the early 1970s to 841 million in the early 1990s. Although there are still many hungry people in the world, the problem is less severe than many people think. “It would take a modest effort to end hunger and malnutrition worldwide by the year 2015,” Bread for the World maintains. David Beckmann, president of Bread for the World, blames politics, not population, for hunger and malnutrition. “The chief enemy is not lack of food but political apathy.” (“Proportion of Hungry People Drops” by Cassandra Burrell, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 19, 1998)
Sarah Dateno assembled arid edited this month’s From the Countries items.
