Popcorn: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

POPULATION INSTITUTE’s FORNOS AND ZPG’s EHRLICH ARE ON THE LOOSE AGAIN!

Two pieces of overpopulation propaganda, one from Werner Fornos and his Population Institute, and the other from Paul Ehrlich’s Zero Population Growth (ZPG) outfit, recently arrived at PRI’s offices.

According to a “Dear Friend” letter signed by Fornos: (1) “the current world population of 5.4 billion [is] destined to double in less than 30 years,” and (2) “40,000 [people] die each day from hunger and malnutrition .…”

A cover letter accompanying a ballot for a “national referendum on population issues,” signed by ZPG honorary president Paul Ehrlich, claims that: (3) “If population growth continues at its present rate … through births, legal and illegal immigration … [U.S. population will grow by] another 40 million people … by the year 2000!,” and, (4) “[there’s been] a rapid dwindling of American wildlife — including the grizzly bear, California condor, sea otter.”

WILL POPULATION DOUBLE IN NEXT 30 YEARS?

Fornos’claim that “world population … [will] double in less than 30 years” requires an increase of some 180 million people each and every year for the next three decades. But, two paragraphs below Fornos’ doubling claim, he says that “[each] week … 1.7 million people will be added to the world,” or 88.4 million per year. That’s probably correct.

Most overpopulation propagandists agree on yearly global population increases of 90–95 million people, although some round off the number at a nice, even 100,000,000.

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), in its report The State of World Population 1991, projects that “The ‘most likely’ estimate [of world population] for 2025 … [is] 8.504 billion …,” while the 10 billion figure will not be reached until 2050–2085.

DOES HUNGER CAUSE 40,000 DEATHS DAILY?

The hoary claim of 40,000 hunger/starvation/malnutrition deaths daily has long been circulated by overpopulation extremists such as Fornos and Ehrlich. The claim is false!

UNICEF says that “the major cause of undernutrition in the world today is not a shortage of food … [but] the frequency of infections, especially diarrheal disease and measles .…” Unicef explains that the malnutrition, which often accompanies death in third world nations, is usually the result of a deadly disease and not its cause.

For a full analysis of the “40,000 lives daily” ploy see “How The Ehrlichs Operate: Big Claims, But No Proof,” PRI Review, Vol. 1, No. 2, March/April 1991, pp. 6–8.

40 MILLION MORE IN U.S. BY YEAR 2000?

Ehrlich’s claim that 40 million people will be added to the population of the United States by the year 2000, if current growth rates continue, is sheer nonsense. Current U.S. birth totals are slightly in excess of 4 million per year. Thus, “by the year 2000,” some 32 million will be added to the population through birth. Additionally, net migration (immigration plus illegal entry minus emigration) equals some one million per year. Add it up: 40 million. Is Ehrlich right for a change?

Doesn’t anyone die in Ehrlich’s United States of the 1990s?

U.S. yearly deaths are in excess of 2.1 million, yielding some 17 million by the year 2000. Subtracting off the deaths, one sees that the U.S. population increase during the next eight years will be some 23 million — about the same as in each of the previous three decades — or little more than one-half of Ehrlich’s claim.

Incidentally, that’s a good rule of thumb to follow with Fornos and Ehrlich: take almost any number they advance and divide by two. That way you’ll be a lot closer to the truth.

AMERICAN WILDLIFE RAPIDLY DWINDLING?

Although Ehrlich claims there’s a “rapid dwindling of American wildlife,” he ignores other facts. For instance, the brown pelican population, which by 1961 had almost vanished due to DDT poisoning, has skyrocketed to some 50,000; bald eagles, another DDT casualty in the 1960s, now number more than 10,000 in the lower 48 states alone; the eastern white-tail deer has come back in such large numbers they’ve become a nuisance in suburbia, and some states are considering longer hunting seasons to control the increase. Similarly, bear populations are increasing, and recently a black bear was found wandering the streets of Bethesda, Maryland, less than 10 miles from the White House. As for “the grizzly bear, California condor, [and the] sea otter,” the managers of the Interior Department’s recovery programs for these species dispute Ehrlich. The head of the grizzly bear program says flatly that Ehrlich’s charge is “not true,” and cited grizzly bear populations totaling some 1,000 animals in four states, and 10,000 across the border in British Columbia. Another 40,000 are in Alaska.

The California condor is actually being saved from extinction by man’s efforts. In early October four young condors were reintroduced into the wild, the first releases in a program to establish viable populations. Condors now number 52 birds, a near doubling in the past four years.

The manager of the sea otter recovery program flatly stated that “otters are not on the decline anywhere,” and cited growing colonies of more than 2000 in California and some 200,000 in Alaska. (Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, private communications, October 10–11, 1991).

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